Epidemiology – BioQuakes

After spending months locked in our homes, eager for social interaction, you may find yourself wanting to justify grabbing a quick bite with a friend despite the risk of COVID-19. However, this MIT Technology Review article proves that not only are restaurants the riskiest location when it comes to the coronavirus, but you are actually four times more likely to catch the virus in a restaurant than in the gym, which is the second most dangerous location.

Safegraph, a company that collects anonymous location data from smartphones, curated a team of epidemiologists, computer scientists, and social scientists from Stanford University and Northwestern University. Together, Safegraph and their new team used smartphone data to predict and understand where most people were catching COVID-19. To do this, researchers tracked nearly 100 million people through their phones in 10 of the biggest US cities from March 1 to May 1, collecting the movements of people going to gyms, grocery stores, restaurants, places of worship, etc.

After accumulating this smartphone data, they used it to predict the level of risk each location had based on three categories: “how big the venue was, how long people stayed inside it, and how many people were likely to be infectious in the given area.” After comparing their predictions to the official records of cases, it was proven that their new prediction model was accurate. Like one may have already guessed: the smaller the venue is, the longer people stay inside it, and the larger the number of people inside the venue are all of the factors that make a location more dangerous when it comes to catching COVID-19.

Epidemiology has proved that the three factors stated above make someone more susceptible to getting COVID-19 because the virus spreads most prominently through respiratory droplets. These droplets can be spread through breathing, talking, eating, etc. In restaurants, people don’t wear masks, allowing these respiratory droplets to infect everyone around them, as they can land on surfaces as well as drift through the air. Another danger with restaurants and not wearing a mask is being asymptomatic: unknowingly contracting the virus, having no symptoms, and then going to restaurants, where you take your mask off, allowing the virus to spread to all those around you.

Eating, talking, breathing, and possibly even laughing are almost all guaranteed when going out to eat. However, those are all the primary methods by which respiratory droplets spread.

If you acquire an asymptomatic or mild coronavirus case, research suggests that your immune system works the same as it normally would for other viruses. When you come in contact with COVID-19, your innate immune system immediately reacts; it is the first line of defense in your immune system and releases a rapid response. This quick response is nonspecific, meaning that it is recognized as simply a pathogen, with minimal specifics. As that rapid response begins, your adaptive immunity begins to develop and form antibodies to fight the specific virus you are infected with. Because this response is more specific to the virus you have, it is also slower acting, which is why viruses take days or weeks to recover from.

Anyway, going back to the research: Using this new prediction model, the research team simulated different restaurant situations, such as 10% capacity, 50% capacity, and even full capacity. The model suggested that implementing a 20% maximum capacity in restaurants would cut infection rates by 80%. However, from an economic standpoint, a 20% maximum capacity would result in a likely loss of 42% of customers during “peak hours.”

So, it is crucial to think about what is more important: minimizing infection rates or keeping businesses alive? Personally, I think it is necessary to find a balance where people can stay safe, and businesses can remain open, especially small ones. Restaurants have already begun thinking of safe and innovative ways to dine. For example, a restaurant in NYC has an outdoor patio with large, private pods where groups of people can eat out without exposure to the people around them. Though even this system has its loopholes and issues, it is a step in the right direction.

Will you be going out to eat this week?

Diet has been known to play a key role in breast cancer risk. A study done by Karin B. Michels, professor and chair of the Department of Epidemiology at the Fielding School of Public Health at UCLA, at Medical News Today links a poor pro-inflammatory diet during adolescence, to a greater risk of developing breast cancer. A pro-inflammatory diet consists of foods such as red meats, butter, cheese, etc. Because breast estrogenic hormones are found in these kinds of foods, researchers hypothesize that these compounds fuel breast cancer cell growth.

Photo taken by “kaboompics”: Karolina Grabowska

A case-control study, comparing breast cancer patients to women unaffected by the disease, by Roswell Park Cancer Institute also shows that there may be an association between types of dairy foods, specifically yogurt and cheese, consumed and breast cancer development. Susan McCann, Professor of Oncology in the Department of Cancer Prevention and Control at Roswell Park, says “dairy foods are co mplex mixtures of nutrients and non-nutrient substances that could be negatively and positively associated with breast cancer risk”.

In the case-control study, scholars examined the association between the types of dairy food consumed among 1,941 women diagnosed with breast cancer between the years 2003-2014. Taking into account factors such as demographics, menopausal status, energy intake, and family history researchers found that women who consumed high amounts of yogurt were found to have a 39% lower risk of cancer development while women who consumed high amounts of cheese, particularly cheddar and cream cheese, had the opposite effect with a 53% increased risk of breast cancer.

Connecting this case-control study to the study done with Medical News Today the results support the idea that a pro-inflammatory diet may cause a greater risk of developing breast cancer. Cheese is known to be part of the pro-inflammatory diet while yogurt is part of an anti-inflammatory diet.

Although more information is needed to definitely confirm these variables as a cause and effect, the correlation found provides us with more information about the possible causes of cancer. “This study of the differences among women and their consumption of dairy products offers significant new understanding into the potential risk factors associated with breast cancer. While diet is thought to be responsible for 30 percent of all cancers, we hope that further research will help us to more fully understand which food products are most valuable in terms of reducing risk for this disease.” (Senior author Christine Ambrosone: chair of the Department of Cancer Prevention and Control).

As someone who has seen the impacts of breast cancer first hand, knowing all different correlational factors that may lead to the development of breast cancer is extremely important.

BioQuakes

AP Biology class blog for discussing current research in Biology

Tag: Epidemiology

Restaurants: A COVID-19 Hotspot

Ladies…Put Down the Cheese and Pick up the Yogurt!

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